Coming War in the Middle East

This might sound like a conspiracy theory but it is just my observations from the last few months in the news and chain of events that made news this past week.  

I think some back ground is in order to understand the region. Middle East is mostly Muslim majority but broken out into two sects Shiite and Sunni (Most extreme versions of Sunni including Saudi government do not accept Shiite’s as Muslims.

Back ground: 

1. Iran is a Shiite government with majority Shiite population

2. Saudi is Sunni, with majority Sunni population

3. Assad in Syria is a minority Shiite government

4. Lebanon has Sunni, Shiite and Christian population, The constitution dictates that President has to be a Christian, the Prime Minister Sunni and the head of the Parliament Shiite

5. Hezbullah which is part of the Lebanese government is Shiite

6. Iraq is a majority Shiite government and population but has a lot Sunni tribes

7. ISIS is a Sunni group

8. Al Qaeda is Sunni group

9. Yemen Sunni government was ousted by Shiite rebels and Saudi government started a war with Yemen rebels. Iran is allegedly supporting the rebels in a proxy war with Saudi

10. Israel was and is against the JOPA Iran Nuclear agreement from day 1 and Netanyhu was planning to bomb Iran nuclear sites before the deal was reached.

Here is the news headlines from the last months:

1. Few months backafter Trump visit to Saudi, Qatar which was some what friendly withIran was ousted from the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Counsel) for no goodreason.

2. Trump refused tocertify Iran deal without any evidence of non compliance.

News from past week: 

1. Trump had the lowest poll ratings ever

2. Jared Kushner traveled to Saudi Arabia secretly twice last week

3. The Lebanese Prime Minister resigns his post blaming Shiite Hezbollah backed by Iran

4. Yaman Huttie Shiite backed by Iran all of a sudden got their hands on a ballisticmissile and launched at Ryidh Saudi capital which was intercepted bySaudi’s and did not do any damage.

5. At least 20 of Saudi Princes who were allegedly opposed to the Crown prince of Saudi(which is very hostile to Iran) were arrested.

6. Iran helped Iraq Army to take back the oil rich city of Kirkuk from the Peshmerga Kurdish forces.

7. Iran, Turkey and Iraq were opposed the Kurdish independence referendum in Iraq Kurdistan.

8. With the near end for ISIS in Syria and Iraq, Iran is seen as a power house in the region

9. Israel announced that when Arab and Israel agree on Iran the world should listen.

I do not believe in coincidences, all of these developments are connected.  I think we are looking at a an impeding war in the Persian gulf again.  All of this is part of a master plan at work. 

Nothing will bring up an American presidents ratings like a war, as Chicago Tribune (Link to the article) clearly explains.  We also know from Trump's claims about the number of people at his inauguration how obsessed he is with his ratings. He has to do something even if it is the wrong thing.  North Korea is too much of a risk for him but Iran can be an easy target with Saudi leading the way.

On the other hand Republicans are not ready to scrap the Iran deal since EU is sticking to the deal but Trump wants to fulfill a campaign promise to scrap the deal so he needs a way out.  Also this is another one of President Obama's key achievements that he is hell bent on destroying. 

He needs to convince the EU and some of the people in his own party that Iran is the bad guy in this deal by connecting and bringing in issues that were never part of the deal a classic Trump tactic since the election. 

All of the headlines in the last week leads to one conclusion for me that a war with Iran is right around the corner.

It will start with Iran and Saudi Arabia’s new prince and will drag US into the War.

Iran will be pushed into a situation that would be forced to take action in the Strait of Hormuz. This will cause the Oil markets to sky rocket and the biggest beneficiary is Russian economy since for the last few years cheap oil has has devastated their economy.

With Saudi and Iran at war two of the biggest OPEC oil producers will have a big impact on the oil marketes.

In this scenario US and NATO will not agree since Turkey is NATO ally with complex interest in the region. As well as the EU countries that do not want to be seen as breaking the JOPA without Iran breaking the deal first. 

Israel will greatly benefit since they want the Tehran regime gone or at least their power curtailed.

A war with Iran will have a lot of benefits for the American policy hawks, Trump, Netnayhu government of Israel and Russia.

One thing is clear that Russia did have an impact on the US election.  Direct collusion is not proven yet but the indirect meddling in our elections are proven.

They have created a division in our country and US political system that caused the US to elect a divisive president.  They are trying and succeeding in weakening the NATO alliance.  We are not in place that we were after WWII, a leader and a unite-er of the world.     

If this happens the biggest winner in this Russia and this will solidify their power in the Middle East and the rest of the world.

I am very much hoping that I am wrong on this but would love to hear your thoughts so please feel free to comment.